Deadly numbers

Someone (not a Norwegian) told me (a Norwegian) that mass shootings are far worse in Norway than in the States. They backed their claim with the statistics linked below[1], where Norway outranks USA by a factor of 21 (1.888 against 0.089 dead per million people, respectively). So, any claim that Norway is a safer country than America is, what, bogus?


Fact is, though, that mass shootings in Norway are so rare that, over an hour or so of searching, I couldn’t even find any separate statistics for them. They merge into the statistics for ‘regular’ murders by firearm. Searching for articles on mass shootings, I found literally a handful, a total of five[2], over the last century.

These happened in 2022, 2021, 2011, 1988, and 1938. The one in 2021 was done with a bow and arrow, so I’m not sure if that even counts, but I’ll leave it in. Did I miss any? Let me know.

The Utøya massacre in 2011 is the one that flips the statistics on its head, with its 69 dead in one single attack. It’s terrible, it’s tragic, and it’s heart-breaking, and I in no way intend to trivialise that. However in statistical terms it’s still just one single incident, and it’s an extreme aberration. And because Norway has a far smaller population than USA, by a factor of 61[3], it makes all that more of a mark when you calculate its magnitude per population size.

The one in 2022 took two lives, 2021 saw 5 dead by bow and arrow, 4 were shot to death in 1988, and in 1938 the shooter killed 5. That’s 16 dead in four mass shootings over 84 years, an average of four! The single mass shooting in 2011 took more than four times that total number of lives alone, meaning there is no comparison to the others, what. so. ever.

And the number of mass shootings is still five, over 84 years. A single mass shooting in the US with 69 people killed would make hardly a dent in their statistics over the same time period, or even the last handful of years.

So no, I do not for a second buy the claim by a Republican-voting American that Norway has a worse mass shooting situation than USA. Then again, they’re not exactly known for their grasp on facts and reality.

And let’s never forget July 22nd, 2011 🌹


Footnotes

  1. Statistics link: worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/mass-shootings-by-country
  2. 2022-06-25 Oslo: 2 dead, 21 injured,
    2021-10-13 Kongsberg: 5 dead, 3 injured (stab weapon, bow and arrow),
    2011-07-21 Utøya massacre: 69 dead, 66 injured (plus the Oslo bombing 8 dead, 30 injured),
    1988-08-20 Farsund: 4 dead, 2 injured,
    1938-05-04 Våler: 5 dead, 3 injured
  3. Perspective: Adjusted for relative population size, where Norway is home to 5.4 million people, compared to the United States’ 330 million, the 69 dead at the Utøya massacre would correspond to around 4,216 dead in any single US mass shooting. That’s 1,239 more than the people who died in the World Trade Center attack.

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